The methodology for seeding teams in the draw for World Cup qualifying has recently undergone a major change, with UEFA announcing the use of a combination of UEFA Nations League performance and FIFA World Ranking. This decision has significantly impacted the seeding of teams for the upcoming World Cup qualifiers, particularly benefiting countries like England.
Initially, UEFA had proposed using final positions in the latest edition of the UNL to determine seedings for the World Cup qualifiers. This move was aimed at avoiding a clash in the calendar for countries that make it to the quarterfinals of the expanded UNL format. Without this special arrangement, England would have been relegated to Pot 2 for the draw due to their performance in the previous UNL under Gareth Southgate.
Being in Pot 2 would have posed the risk of England being paired with other powerhouse European teams in the qualifiers. Only the 12 group winners qualify directly to the World Cup finals, while the runners-up enter playoff paths for the remaining spots. Fortunately, FIFA stepped in and confirmed that Pot 1 would consist of the top eight countries from UNL League A and the top four countries by World Ranking, ensuring England’s spot.
The upcoming World Cup draw will showcase a new format, with the UNL quarterfinalists appearing as winner/loser pairings to accommodate the UNL finals in June 2025. This adjustment means that the final composition of the World Cup groups will not be known at the start of the qualifiers in March. The remaining pots for the draw will be based on World Ranking, with additional changes for teams playing in the UNL promotion and relegation matches.
The revised seeding system offers hope to several countries that would not usually have a chance of being seeded in the World Cup qualifiers. Countries like Netherlands, Portugal, Italy, and Croatia, among others, can potentially earn a Pot 1 spot with a strong UNL League A performance. This incentive extends to countries like Poland, Hungary, and Scotland, who will be participating in League A for this UNL edition.
The new seeding system for World Cup qualifiers marks a significant change in the traditional approach to seeding teams. By incorporating UNL performance with FIFA World Ranking, UEFA aims to provide smaller nations with a fair opportunity to secure a seed in the draw. This shift not only benefits countries like England but also opens up new possibilities for teams that would have otherwise struggled to secure a Pot 1 spot. The upcoming qualifiers promise to be an exciting and unpredictable affair, given the alterations in the seeding process.